Chance of thunderstorms could put a dent into the Fair Grounds most important day of racing. On Saturday, March 21, the Fair Grounds runs the $1,000,000 Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Although the Kentucky Derby has switched dates from May 2 to Sep. 5, the Fair Grounds will still run their top Derby prep. Why not? It gives talented 3-year-olds a chance to put money in the bank. Check out analysis and picks for the Louisiana Derby as well as a couple of other great stakes races on the Fair Grounds Saturday card! Check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Fair Grounds for Saturday, March 21. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks.
Horse Racing Odds Fair Grounds Racetrack – Top Plays for March 21
- When: Saturday, March 21 at 12:00 pm ET
- Where: New Orleans, LA
- Weather: Chance of Thunderstorms
- Temperature: High 81 – Low 64
Race 9 – 4:10 pm ET – 1 1/8 M Dirt – $400,000 Grade 2 New Orleans Classic
The Todd Pletcher trained Fearless has had issues. The Ghostzapper 4-year-old has run twice during his career. That’s a good thing. If Pletcher has entered Fearless into the New Orleans Classic, it means he thinks the horse is ready. Expect this $725K purchase to rocket to the lead right out of the gate and hang on for a front-running score.
Now a 5-year-old horse, the Steve Asmussen trained Tenfold never lived up to the billing. His best win to date is the Grade 3 Pimlico Special. The Curlin sired horse had no shot in the Pegasus World Cup. But he did race well to finish sixth. He could knock up for the place money and there’s nothing wrong with Johnny V. on his back or the Horse Racing Odds of 12/1 morning line.
The longer, the better for Lone Sailor who has 2 wins and 2 seconds from 6 races at the Fair Grounds. Tom Amoss puts the saddle on the winner of more than $1.264 million. Expect Lone Sailor to make his patented run for third.
- Win: Fearless
- Place: Tenfold
- Show: Lone Sailor
Race 11 – 5:15 pm ET – 1 1/6 M Dirt– $400,000 Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks
It makes sense that Finite is the 3/5 chalk. She’s won 5 in a row, is trained by Steve Asmussen and appears to be Steve’s next great filly runner ala Rachel Alexandra. But her speed ratings don’t imply she blows away this field.
For first, let’s go with Bonny South. Like Finite a Munnings’ runner, the Brad Cox miss has improved in each of her first 3 races. Any more improvement could put her into the winner circle on Saturday.
Let’s look past Finite again for second and go with Stop Shopping Tammy. She heads into this off a maiden score, which is why she’s at 8/1 Horse Racing Odds on the morning line. But before tossing her, notice the positives. Trainer Philip Bauer is winning at 36% at the meet, she runs with first time Lasix, had a great work on March 16, and Tapit sired her. Tammy has a chance for an exacta placing.
Finite finishes third. The chalk won’t offer odds but she is the likeliest winner. Still, no doubt, this is the best group of fillies she’s faced. So, there’s a chance she finishes out of the try. No qualms from us if you decide to ignore her altogether.
- Win: Bonny South
- Place: Stop Shopping Tammy
- Show: Finite
Race 12 – 5:49 pm ET – 1 3/16 M Dirt – $1,000,000 Grade 2 Louisiana Derby
The most important race of the day is wide-open. In horse races like Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, we must consider every factor, including post-position. Risen Star winner Modernist breaks from post-14. Second-place finisher Major Fed breaks from post-1. That makes Major Fed the pick to win. The Gregory Foley trained, Ghostzapper sired 3-year-old lost the Risen Star by just a length. Jockey Joel Rosario will ensure a great trip while Modernist must work hard to get position around the first turn. Major Fed gets his revenge.
Mailman Monday offers 15/1, comes from the hot Bret Calhoun barn, and finished fourth in the Risen Star by just 2 lengths. No true chalk exists in this race. The favorite offers 6/1 Horse Racing Odds. So, why not go for the money?
We’re making Well’s Bayou, another Brad Cox runner, our third choice. Well’s Bayou is 8/1 on the morning line. In his last, the Lookin At Lucky sired colt finished second by a length in the Grade 3 Southwest. Well’s Bayou could go gate-to-wire if nobody goes with him. So, when you construct your trifecta ticket for the Louisiana Derby, make sure you got all 3 choices in all three slots: win, place, and show.
- Win: Major Fed
- Place: Mailman Monday
- Show: Well’s Bayou