As we head into the final few weeks of the college football season, we are at the stage of the year when things really begin to heat up. The battle for the 4 playoff spots is going to go right down to the wire, especially when you consider that the top 4 teams still need to play one another before the end of the season. LSU will square off against Alabama on Saturday, while the Ohio State Buckeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions will meet later in the season. What that means is that there is no way the top 4 as we know it now will be the same at the end of the year.
There are also other big races going on across the multiple conferences, as there are a lot of teams still in with a shot at becoming conference champions. In the Mountain West Conference, the Boise State Broncos look to be in good shape in the Mountain Division, while the San Diego State Aztecs are in a position to clinch the West. They will host the Nevada Wolf Pack as a 17 ½ point favorite, with the point total set at 39.
Nevada vs San Diego State 2019 College Football Week 11 Odds & Prediction
Why bet on the Nevada Wolf Pack?
The Nevada Wolf Pack come into this one with a 5-4 record on the season and an opportunity to become bowl eligible with a win in this one. The bad news for Nevada is that they have won just twice in their last 5 games, with all of those games coming in conference play.
They are out of the race to win the division, but they do have a chance to play the role of spoiler here. The problem that Nevada faces is that they have managed just 2 wins in their last 9 meetings with the Aztecs, although the month of November has been good for them, with the Wolf Pack winning 4 of their last 5 games during that month. As far as the point spread goes, Nevada is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings with San Jose State.
- Points per Game: 19.33
- Passing Yards: 237.33
- Rushing Yards: 121.11
- Yards per Play: 4.84
- Points per Game: 34.56
- Passing Yards: 268.22
- Rushing Yards: 146.44
- Yards per Play: 6.25
Why bet on the San Diego State Aztecs?
With a win on Saturday night, the San Diego State Aztecs would all but clinch the West Division in the MWC. A win would move them to 5-1 in conference play and keep them a minimum of 2 wins ahead of the chasing pack. They look destined to be in the Conference Championship, but this is the type of game where a team can have a bit of a letdown and allow an upset to occur.
They come into this one having won 4 in a row, but they have actually been better on the road than at home, going 5-0 away versus 2-1 at home. Overall, though, they have been a fabulous pick against the spread, going 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played in the month of November.
- Points per Game: 21.75
- Passing Yards: 177.13
- Rushing Yards: 151.63
- Yards per Play: 4.60
- Points per Game: 14.13
- Passing Yards: 213.63
- Rushing Yards: 69.88
- Yards per Play: 4.61
Nevada vs San Diego State College Football Week 11 Betting Trends
- Wolf Pack are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games played in week 11
- Wolf Pack are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against San Diego State
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nevada’s last 5 games
- Aztecs are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games
- Aztecs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played in November
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Diego State’s last 8 games this season
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for Nevada vs San Diego State
While these often end up being trip-up games, I think that San Jose State maintain their focus and get the win here. I also think that they covert the spread in rather comfortable fashion.
Score: Nevada Wolf Pack 13 – San Jose State Aztecs 35